In spite of the fact that Google is down 35 pts and 7 out of 10 of the largest NASDAQ stocks are negative, the index trades around flat as I write, not bad at all. However the negatives continue to pile up. Oil is approaching $69, the bond market is down again with lots of supply coming next week, with Intel, 2 out of the big 3 have reported punk earnings, housing stocks are weak as both the MBA survey fell 5% and the NRA index of pending sales fell 3%. Lately I've also noticed a correlation, which makes sense, between housing stocks, retailers and the bank index. They are all weak today. Mortgage lending and home equity loans have been a big source of bank profits, and of course we all know how dependent retailers are on home prices.
The character of this market this year and maybe longer has been long periods of little volatility and then big bursts up and down, ala the first day of the year and the big swoon on Jan 20th. I think we are headed for another swoon, it is just a question of what sends it over the edge. If you would have told me about Google beforehand, I would have said that would have been enough. Maybe oil touching 70 or a bad auction next week . Stay tuned.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
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