FACTS TO CHEW ON

Consider this. On 10/13/05 the market low, S&P500 @ 1170, oil was at $63 and the 10yr note was at about 4.5%. At the market high on 1/11/06 S&P500 @1295, oil was at $64 and the 10yr note was at about 4.5%. In between we have had weak economic stats and strong, good earnings and bad. If oil, bond yields, don't matter and we've had 4th qtr GDP at 3.8% and 1st qtr GDP at 1.1%, high profile earnings misses by INTC,GOOG, YAHOO, upside surprises by XOM, BA, CAT, what's driving the market? It seems to me nothing moves the market like perceptions over Fed policy. It was perceptions of further tightening that drove the market down in September, and after Fed minutes were released on the first trading day of the year, it was perceptions that they were almost done that pushed the market up to 1294. So the lesson seems to be ignore the noise and watch how the market feels about the Fed.