Sunday, November 30, 2008

REBOUND

This weeks post will be short and sweet lest I become too redundant. Biggest 5 day rally since the 30's, even though the news continued atrocious. New homes sales lower as well as prices, durable goods down 6.2%, personal spending -1% and it's not going to get much better. But the market was deeply oversold and more importantly the mother of all fiscal stimulus packages is coming. The bad news is in the rear view mirror and being ignored as consensus over the stimulus package grows. If you recall, the last stimulus package gave us a quarterly growth rate of almost 3%. This one is going to be much bigger. It will buy us a temporary respite. Is it the right thing to do? That is a different question. The market will probably meander in a range of 800-1000 in the S&P. Bad news will be absorbed as good news is coming. Volatility will decrease. The next big leg will not come until we see if the next administration's policies turn things around or otherwise.
Good trading -till next week.

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