POSITIVE SPIN

Let's try to put a positive spin on all the things I worry about. After all to climb a wall of worry is a good thing. My worries fall primarily into three categories, the economy, geopolitical, and the market itself.

Economy-
Interest rates- we are in our 4th year of rising rates, but don't worry they are still historically not high, so the market can still move forward. Hey I heard it on CNBC.
yield curve - Its flat to inverted but this time is different Bernanke told me so.
Housing is slowing down, along with prices, but the Fed said the economy can withstand a housing slowdown.
Sales- they have been weak, as stated in housing, autos , and most recently retail sales, but we are not at a danger point yet.
International rate hikes- Both the ECB and the Bank of Japan have snugged up monetary policy and as a result global liquidity is being reduced. The tightening is occurring from such a low level that it's not a problem.

Market-
We are overbought, but I guess we can get more overbought.
Mutual Fund cash is at record low levels so buying power is lacking. But,the little guy is coming back into the market.
Leadership- Some of the bellwethers have been shot down, Google and Intel to name two.
Others will emerge.
Insider selling is very high, especially in semiconductors. The little guy is buying.
NDX short interest is at very low levels, not much buying power left from short covering.
The little guy is buying.
Volume is low. It will pick up as soon as we break through the highs.
Block trades are way off signaling a lack of institutional participation, but you guessed it , the little guy is buying.
This is one of the longest periods ever without at least a 10% correction. So what.

Geopolitical-
Iraq- deteriorating into civil war. I remember when we turned over more responsibility to
ARVN the South Vietnamese regulars. It was the beginning of the end. Maybe it will force us out of there sooner.
Bird flu- the northern migration of wild birds should bring it to our shores soon. Think of all the pharmaceutical stocks that will benefit.
Iran- no end in sight to that confrontation. At least it's not in the headlines every day.
Trade - Senator Schummer is in China trying to get them to revalue their currency and threatening to slap a 27% tariff on their imports if they don't. If he does, that will thrash the dollar which will be extremely good for multinational earnings.