We are in our 5th day of sideways trading. A consolidation the bulls say. Never short a dull market says the axiom. Well perhaps, but if a market can"t make headway, it usually tests support. Fading concerns over the economy, pushed the market up and since then we have had a lack of catalysts. Tomorrow we get the trade figures and first look at Univ of Mich consumer sentiment readings, potential catalysts to be sure. The trade deficit could be a record, so it will be difficult to spin that one as bullish. On the other hand, if the consumer sentiment index shows a real bounce, that may be all the bulls need to go to higher ground. If we get a small bounce it will be important to see how the market reacts. A decline speaks for itself.
The dollar has been on a run and is somewhat overbought here. With the trade figures as catalyst, it seems an opportune time to play for a bounce in the Euro, gold or gold stocks. The wild card is how will bonds react. We are close to breaking the April highs in 10yr yields.
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