Wednesday, December 28, 2005

END OF YEAR DOLDRUMS


In the fall the S&p fell from 1240 to 1170 on the Fed inflation and tightening scare. In November the third quarter GDP coming in at 3.8% put to rest fears that hurricanes, energy costs and the Fed had harmed the economy and we ran from 1170 to 1270. From there, for the last five weeks we sit between 1250-1275. Volume is low and nothing substantial appears to be going on. Underneath the surface however, change is taking place. Yesterday's 100 point plunge was a dailykey reversal and may become a weekly. The bank index BKX, that led the Nov rally looks like it may be rolling over as RSI is dropping. Housing continues to soften as the MBA mortgage application survey showed today by dropping further. From 95 to 2000 it was the internet driving the economy, from 2000 to 2005 housing has driven the economy. The market trades as if people are more interested in protecting this years profits than marking them higher. Christmas was no blowout and earnings warning season is not far away. Retail reports are due next week and the chart of the RTH doesn't look too good. It's a good time to be careful and maybe put out some shorts. Happy New Year.



Thursday, December 08, 2005

MCDONALD'S

McDonald's reported their monthly sales this morning. Of course they touted their same store sales rising 4%. Less heralded were their global system-wide sales up a paltry 1.7% , the lowest in YEARS! Those are what will be reflected in total revenues. Furthermore, at the end of their press release they state they are taking a 2 cent charge for asset impairment in Korea and that if the dollar stays where it is and mind you this is Dec 8 their earnings will be impacted negatively by at least a penny a share. None of the stories on Yahoo or Marketwatch mention this amazingly. Thomson has consensus earnings at $.47 for 4th qtr vs $.45 a year ago for a 4.4% increase. It sounds to me like they issued an earnings warning this morning that every one missed. Of course tout TV also never mentioned either fact. Has anyone noticed this kind of thing in other widely covered large caps?